RBY OU Jynx vs Arcanine Opening Calcs and more (Ninetales analysis too)

I saw some Arcanine Leads playing Gen1 OU, and it turn out to be a good Lead, believe it or not. And I think it can have a niche in OU. I don't believe in that, I'll show you with math.

Just before diving in, there's a high prob that I mispelled something. English is not my first language... ^^'


-Movesets
Jynx
-Psychic
-Blizzard
-Lovely Kiss
-Rest/Body Slam/Seismic Toss
(Critical Hit Rate: 18.55%)

Arcanine
-Fire Blast/Leer
-Body Slam
-Agility
-Hyper Beam
(Critical Hit Rate: 18.55%)

Arcanine BSTs:
HP: 90 (383)
Atk: 110 (318)
Def: 80 (258)
Spec: 80 (258)
Spd: 95 (288)
Obs.: This thing is surprisingly bulky.


-Calcs on Turn 1:

(Jynx's side)
Jynx Blizzard vs. Arcanine: 146-172 (38.1 - 44.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Jynx Psychic vs. Arcanine: 110-130 (28.7 - 33.9%) -- 0.6% chance to 3HKO

Jynx Body Slam vs. Arcanine: 47-56 (12.2 - 14.6%) -- possible 7HKO

Jynx Seismic Toss vs. Arcanine: 100-100 (26.1 - 26.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO


(Arcanine's side)
Arcanine Body Slam vs. Jynx: 115-136 (34.5 - 40.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Jynx: 231-272 (69.3 - 81.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Arcanine Hyper Beam vs. Jynx: 203-239 (60.9 - 71.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO


-Speed Tie

Arcanine clearly receives much less risk in this speed tie. If it loses, it goes to sleep sack and have 5 others members to still fight and can return in end-game. Not mentioning that Jynx must switch to cause more pressure, because Psychic only 3HKO 0.6% of the time (without factoring Spec falls).

Jynx in the other hand, have much more risk involved. If she wins the tie, it can:

(1) put a lesser significant Poké to sleep;

(2) I researched in Bulbapedia and did not find anything saying that Fire-types can't be frozen solid, but even if it can, trying to freeze it is not optimal;

(3) tries to paralyze it with Body Slam (Body Slam don't even shows in Smogon Stats in Gen1 OU 1500 as part of Jynx's main movesets used).

To put it to sleep is good, don't get me wrong. But I feel that putting Arcanine to sleep and let the entire team awake creates me a big discomfort.

What Arcanine can do?

(1) go for 2HKO with Fire Blast (30% chance to Burn, remember that) and having 18.55% Crit Rate (18.55% chance to OHKO Jynx basically);

(2) go for paralyze with Body Slam doing 34.5% minimum;


-Switching Jynx

It usually isn't the best move, but you can switch Jynx because that Arcanine simply loses all its attractiveness (at least cause something to Jynx or simply being put to sleep). Here some interesting more calcs using common Leads/common choices in OU:

Arcanine Body Slam vs. Chansey: 178-210 (25.3 - 29.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

Arcanine Hyper Beam vs. Chansey: 314-370 (44.6 - 52.6%) -- 22.7% chance to 2HKO

(Chansey receiving a Body Slam + Hyper Beam will take at MINIMUM 69.9% HP. That's huge early game, not factoring the Crit Rate)

Arcanine Body Slam vs. Snorlax: 85-100 (16.2 - 19.1%) -- possible 6HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Snorlax: 146-172 (27.9 - 32.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

Arcanine Body Slam vs. Tauros: 68-80 (19.2 - 22.6%) -- possible 5HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Tauros: 141-166 (39.9 - 47%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Arcanine Body Slam vs. Exeggutor: 73-86 (18.5 - 21.8%) -- possible 5HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Exeggutor: 194-228 (49.3 - 58%) -- 98.3% chance to 2HKO

Arcanine Body Slam vs. Starmie: 73-86 (22.6 - 26.6%) -- 20.6% chance to 4HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Starmie: 56-66 (17.3 - 20.4%) -- possible 5HKO

Arcanine Body Slam vs. Alakazam: 103-122 (32.9 - 38.9%) -- 99.9% chance to 3HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Alakazam: 91-108 (29 - 34.5%) -- 4.7% chance to 3HKO

Arcanine Body Slam vs. Jolteon: 90-106 (27 - 31.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Jolteon: 105-124 (31.5 - 37.2%) -- 85% chance to 3HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Gengar: 94-111 (29.1 - 34.3%) -- 3.2% chance to 3HKO

Let's take Tauros out because switching in the bull so early in the game and having 30% of transforming him into a dead slot appears to be a bad move.

Chansey is risky to switch in, because receiving 69.9% minimum damage in Turn 2 is not ideal, not even mentioning the Crit Rate of Arcanine. But that csn easily be nullified with her Soft-Boiled after the doggy is paralyzed.

Snorlax and Starmie seems to be the best answers, but even they have some trouble. Not that Arcanine can KO them, no. The prejudice is a long term one.

Switching Snorlax in to receive a Body Slam + Fire Blast can expose the chubby bear too early to become a good check to anything later on. The Burn chance for him is not so deadly because of Rest, but still let him begging for the Arcanine player to switch in Alakazam/Starmie/Exeggutor when it goes to sleep. And Arcanine can go back without much prejudice.

Random calc at your face:
Snorlax Body Slam vs. Arcanine: 114-135 (29.7 - 35.2%) -- 19.8% chance to 3HKO

If the sleepy monster get Burn, the Attack stat will only be back after switching in again. If it paralyze the legendary dog is amazing, but that only works 30% of the time. Can there be a better odds?

Starmie can get paralyzed in Turn 1 and be at 77.4% ~ 73.4% HP (56.4% ~ 48.7% HP if it Crits). Only to 2HKO Arcanine with Surf, or try to have a Spec fall doing 29.5 - 34.7% damage... That's not good either.

With that, we already ruled out Tauros, Chansey, Starmie and Snorlax. Just to say, they all still are solid threats to Arcanine, but in the early game they just hate to pass through all this.

Let's see our friend Houdini, also known as Alakazam.

It receives a whoping 32.9 - 38.9% damage from Nine's Body Slam and can be paralyzed, not factoring Crits.

I always thought that Alakazam, Starmie and Jynx were the only leads focused in offense early game that can spread status too (Gengar cannot deliver the same power because it lacks STAB, and being good vs Snorlax/Tauros later is more important). But Arcanine is the extreme offense with 30% of paralyzing and burning.

-Agility
This is essencially what differentiates Arc from Ninetales. Arcanine can Agility Turn 1 predicting a Thunder Wave from Starmie/Alakazam and suffer little prejudice to it if the opposing player use it or not.

If Arc is paralyzed turn 1 and use Agility, can use Body Slam without caring if he will survive the next attack or not (specially Starmie's Surf) and try to paralyze her. The same with Zam, and with him the legendary dog's Crot chance can even KO him with Hyper Beam (even using this on Turn 2 being laughable).

-Leer > Fire Blast?
Yes. Because Fire Blast is a very complicated move to use early game. Alakazam just throws himself against its trainer's orders and prays to Arceus for a Burn. Starmie do the same! Chansey just don't mind being Burned, even if she craves for a paralyze. So, what's the use of Fire Blast? To threaten Jynx and Exeggutor, no? Well...

If we don't create this Arcanine moveset mentioning that Arc can throw FB away, Jynx and Exeggutor will never appear in front of him. So, what's better than creating a viable second option to Fire Blast and screw these people away?

Leer let Starmie and Alakazam trembling just like they would be if they were facing a Tauros with +1 Special and Speed. Again, not that Arc will KO it, but can cripple it really bad.

Arcanine Body Slam vs. -1 Starmie: 110-130 (34 - 40.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Arcanine Body Slam vs. -1 Alakazam: 155-183 (49.5 - 58.4%) -- 99.5% chance to 2HKO

Not mentioning the fact that th legendary puppy can use Hyper Beam, too.

But Leer makes Arcanine with its four paws chained against Gengar. Fire Blast can at least Burn it sometimes, incapacitating the ghost's Explosion capabilities (without Crit).


Ok, so now what are the downsides of the big puppy?


-Arcanine's Negatives
In the early game, Starmie, Slowbro and (Reflect) Alakazam are the best options I see.

Starmie have to take the risk of being paralyzed and/or CH'ed to paralyze it back and force him out, more efficiently with Surf. But Surf in her moveset is very costly. This let you know very early what you can check her with.

Slowbro is a late-game creature. Period.

And Reflect Alakazam, I think, is the best answer. The downsides of the oldman with spoons are the obvious lack of PPs and diverse offense without Seismic Toss plus having to waste Psychic's precious PPs on Arcanine.

Arcanine cannot switch in into any move from these 3. Maybe at Starmie's Psychic, but that only if all other plenty of options are not available for you AND if you know that she doesn't like to surf.

In the early game, the enormous tiger have surprisingly few downsides. It can go to sleep sack/be frozen/be paralyzed without crippling the team too much; it can't receive much pressure from common attacks of the typical Leads (Psychic, Ice Beam, Blizzard, Thunderbolt, Night Shade/Seismic Toss, Double-Edge).

But... Its status spreading capability is bad. Trusting these 30% chances to cripple something is not good.

His reliance on Fire Blast PP and Accuracy makes him not so good in the long-term probability roller coaster. And sticking with Body Slam without STAB and 70% chance of doing nothing aren't good either.

Despite his bulk, it still receives good amount of damage from non-STABs super effective moves* and GolDon's main move. Examples below:

(*Notice how the only viable options to fit this criteria is Earthquake? Surf Snorlax is very rare and niched, and no one uses Rock Slide on anything besides GolDon that can slide the own move sometimes.)

Tauros Earthquake vs. Arcanine: 168-198 (43.8 - 51.6%) -- 9.7% chance to 2HKO

Snorlax Earthquake vs. Arcanine: 178-210 (46.4 - 54.8%) -- 65% chance to 2HKO

Rhydon Earthquake vs. Arcanine: 301-354 (78.5 - 92.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Golem Earthquake vs. Arcanine: 267-314 (69.7 - 81.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Persian Slash vs. Arcanine on a critical hit: 136-160 (35.5 - 41.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
OBS.: Persian's Bubblebeam is only used to GolDon. It only does 22.1 - 26.1% to Arcanine.

Snorlax Surf vs. Arcanine: 124-146 (32.3 - 38.1%) -- 97.3% chance to 3HKO

And, last but not least, being a Fire-type is complicated on Gen1 OU. You can neglect it, but the chance od thawing out something will ever exist having Fire Blast with you.

-Other options and hypotheses
Seeing Arcanine in a Lead position made me question if others Fire-types could do it too. Mainly Moltres and Flareon.

Moltres is a late-game creature. Period.

Flareon has the Body Slam + Fire Blast + Hyper Beam combo just as the intimidating doggy, but it lacks the bulk of it. Looking without making much effort, Flareon appears to be a poor man Arcanine.

Charizard, Ninetales and Rapidash have much more problems than good traits.


-General Options to both players

For Jynx player, there are mainly two moves: kiss the legend or switch.

Putting it to sleep still is good, but don't ever forget that turn 1 wake up and having to facing the Speed Tie again. And the chance of Nine waking up while the blondy is psyching him is not to be neglected.

Switching is complicated too. You can bring Chansey and follow the ideal scenario showed above (turn 1 switch, pray not to crit, receive Body Slam, pray not to crit, receive an Hyper Beam/Body Slam, paralyze the tiger, and finally boil the egg). This makes Starmie and Snorlax switch in more comfortably.

Switching Slowbro in will make Arcanine run with the tail between the legs, but the cost of showing the oblivious pig so early is very high.

Switching Gengar in is good overall, because it likes to be burned better than paralyzed. Its exploding capabilities go down a little, but his Crit Rate can help. It absorbs Body Slam and can retaliate with Hypnosis or force Nine out with Thunderbolt/Night Shade, but having Gengar alongside Jynx is something I saw very few times. I can be very wrong in that.

Switching GolDon in to receive the Body Slam can be good to become paralyzed and so, blocking the burn, but be aware of the predicted Fire Blast.

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Golem: 79-94 (21.7 - 25.8%) -- 2.3% chance to 4HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Rhydon: 88-104 (21.3 - 25.1%) -- 0% chance to 4HKO

Both can pressure Nine out, but if I managed to let my striped dog in front of opposing GolDon, I seriously consider trying to burn it and sacrifice him. He is a lead anyway, there's 5 big guys with it to help later and/or threat GolDon. This would specially happen if my team had Zapdos/Jolteon.

Switching Snorlax in is to cripple the chubby bear before he can help with Tauros/opposing Snorlax/everything.

Switching Alakazam in is good overall too. If it has Reflect, the better. If it doesn't, it is risky. Arcanine's Body Slam + paralysis + Hyper Beam can KO Alakazam, be careful.


-Conclusion

Arcanine is surprisingly difficult to deal in early game. I want to have missed something big to not be right. Maybe if I sticked with the fact that he is badass since my youth, today I could laugh and say "See? I always knew he is good!!!". Lol

Jokes aside, he manages to have a average response to every Lead nowadays and create a situation in which every possible good check to him have to deal with big risks too early. And I think that is amazing.

To sum up, the more logical openings moves that can happen is Jynx use Lovely Kiss or switch. Arcanine click Body Slam blindly. If Jynx switches, the best scenario I see is to bring Chansey, Reflect Alakazam, GolDon and Starmie, but they all have very importants downsides, while Arcanine can risk being KOed because his entire team is waiting to come in too.

I really hope receiving more feedback from everyone that plays Gen1 OU! And don't be shy; tell me every mistake I can probably have made or things I missed.

Edit: erased everything about Fire Spin. Melanie pointed out the striped puppy doesn't learn it.

Edit 2: Added the "Agility" and "Leer > Fire Blast?" and "Ninetales vs Arcanine" just below, after discussing with Cooljam Jr in the comments.

-Ninetales vs Arcanine

(See my comment below for everything I said)

Ninetales can do everything that Arcanine can and better, but Nine can't learn Agility. This is a very important detail.

>Ninetales outspeeds Jynx;
>Ninetales can parafuse with Body Slam and Confuse Ray;
>Ninetales can learn Fire Spin;
>Ninetales has a stronger Fire Blast.

But after used Ninetales for a while, it seems that Arcanine can do better just because of a stronger Body Slam and Agility. Just to counter-argument, Ninetales can still do better because vs Jynx Arcanine is either asleep or damaged and not have time to use Agility.

 

Arcanine doesn't learn Fire Spin, but there are fire types who outspeed Jynx that do.

Turn 2 hyper beam is a lol move

 

Where in the world did I see Fire Spin? Lol. Thank you!

Edit: You saying that reminds that you can deal with possible Hyper Beam in turn 2 with GolDon and fires a direct Earthquake without problem.

 

Now that I am home on my computer let's get into all this:
1. Jynx NEEDS Rest, nothing else. You need Rest in order to ensure Jynx can be put to sleep rather than another Pokemon, because after Jynx sleeps then goes for freeze a few turns she's deadweight and anything else being put to sleep is making it a 4v5.

Jynx vs Arcanine turn 1:
I'm positive this is favorable for Jynx. as in if Jynx clicks Lovely Kiss there's a high chance Arcanine ends up asleep. Even if she takes a Fire Blast in the process, as long as Jynx gets the sleep she wins the lead matchup. It is NOT optimal for Jynx to switch. Also, if anything, it's a GOOD thign to be burned, because this means whatever comes in next can't paralyze/sleep you. However the damage is enough to make Jynx have to Rest pretty quick, so that's at least 1 thing in Arcanine's favor.

This says more about Arcanine than it says about Jynx. You don't have to throw the game and never get sleep just because your opponent is using a bad mon.

The Chansey switch scenario:
"Chansey is risky to switch in, because receiving 69.9% minimum damage in Turn 2 is not ideal"
Um, this is fine. It's not 69.9% because you can heal it. Yes, critting the Hyper Beam means Chansey is derezzed, but you're playing for ~18.5% odds. Also it's not "just paralysis". Throughout the game your opponent will be attempting to get sleep, and Arcanine can't sleep block forever. Eventually your team will be 1 paralyzed or dead Arcanine, 1 sleeping Pokemon, vs 1 sleeping Pokemon. Very unfavorable numbers-wise. Chansey can also Sing, which will have 100% accuracy if you are recharging from Hyper Beam.

Arcanine getting paralyzed isn't just "deadweight 25% of the time", it's now slower than everything besides other paralyzed pokemon. This Pokemon cannot afford to be slow, it is essentially dead if it's slow.

Starmie getting paralyzed early game is good unless you happen to be facing Mega Drain Exeggutor, Alakazam is risking less than you think lacking Reflect, Snorlax is simply not a good switch-in.

Also be honest with yourself, are you winning with Arcanine against good players or randoms on ladder?

 

Yeah, know that. I just put Seismic Toss and Body Slam to show other possibilities. I always use Rest because is the best one.

Yeah, I know that too, it is one of the first things I say. Jynx, as usual, will click Lovely Kiss, but don't you think that not winning the speed tie and receiving a Body Slam/Fire Blast and probably losing Jynx in turn 1 or 2 isn't something to consider?

Jynx is trusting on a 75 acc move and winning the tie. Arcanine is trusting on winning the tie, a 100% acc move (BSlam), a 85% acc move (FBlast, more than Lovely Kiss), the same Crit Rate than Jynx, and 30% chance of burning forcing us to switch out or Rest too early.

If we succeed, ok, we put the tiger on a sleep sack and that's good, don't get me wrong. If Nine succeed, we lose our sleeper lead, possible freeze opportunities on Chansey/something important, and need to face it 5x6 in possible 1 to 3 turns.

For me, this os not something to simply let pass. And this is not only conserning Jynx, it conserns other Leads as I showed. Chansey can receive too much presaure early on, Alakazam too, and the reward to all of them is to cripple or KO something that is meant to be a distraction, just a Lead. Do you see why I wrote all this? It appears that, surprisingly, Arcanine can do many things with the viables leads today. Not the he is game-breaking, I'm not stupid. Just showing some interesting calcs that can affect all the match.

I won't throw the game because of that, I'm just showing how important is putting Arcanine, of all things, to sleep and let the big4, Slowbro and everything else don't care about sleep for a important period of time.

You are right, about everything in this part. I forgot Sing Chansey while recharging and the possibility of letting 1 paralyzed Nine + 1 sleep vs 1 sleep. This is good.

This isn't right. There are some OU Pokés that have less bulk than Arcanine (Gengar, Starmie, Alakazam only to cite some), very well known moveset and role, that aren't dead if get paralyzed. Why Arcanine is? Just because his speed is lower than these 3? I don't think that is enough to say that.

Do you think I just stumbled upon some 1000 elo player using Arcanine and wrote all this? I'm not a top player, I want to reach 1500 elo and 2 players used Nine against me in the 1400 to 1500+ elo. I read a lot of articles about RBY OU, study the tiers and viability rankings. I'm not top 500, but I'm not someone who started playing Pokémon today. I play this thing for more than 20 years. Played a lot of others tiers starting on GSC and wanted to try RBY one month ago.

I know everything about learning to read Smogon's/Pokemon Perfect's articles, watching a battle of mine or of some top player to see good and bad positions and why they were won and lost, amd how to build a team. And with that, I know how strange and out of place Arcanine is in RBY OU. That's exactly why I wrote all this, to show that despite 20+ years of existence, RBY OU is still being discovered.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts! Really, really appreciated.

 

It is, but what matters is the average result. On average Jynx will win this. Note I'm not using "average" analogously with "most common". The average value is a + for the Jynx player, even if certain scary scenarios can happen.

Not exactly, but quite frankly I think you're the player I was assuming you were. Even 1500 rarely produces quality RBY games, because ladder is shit and doesn't matter. Not to demean you, but to make a claim like a Pokemon that's been thrown to the side for being shit is actually good requires more than a few calcs and success on ladder.

And yeah you can get 1500 with bad mons like Arcanine, Ortheore got 1500 with Ditto lol.

 

I know that math can be strange sometimes. I think it was here on PP that I saw some calcs involving Gengar vs Exeggutor and despite Sleep Powder being more accurate, Gengar won like 70% of the time, or something like that.

But on average, due to the speed tie, 50% of the time each one will attack. In Jynx's 50%, 75% of the time it will successfully put Arcanine to sleep. After that, if Nine doesn't wake up in turn 1, it is fine.

In Arcanine's 50%, 100% of the time it will attack. In these 100%, if it uses Body Slam, it adds 30% of paralyzing and 18,55% of crit. If it uses Fire Blast, it only hits 85% of the time (not even factoring the 99,6% acc of 100% acc moves) + 18,55% crit.

I know that even if Nine hits blondy, she can still put it to sleep. But she needs to not be critted, not be fully paralyzed and not miss Lovely Kiss.

Looking at this, I say that on average Jynx is in a bad position. It would be cool if comeone could calculate this, if that is possible... Lol. It looks scary to me.

I don't said Arcanine is good. After early game it just vanishes. I said it apparently have a good matchup against common leads today starting in front on them in turn 1. After that, i didn't say anything more. What more than that, calcs and result in ladder is needed to a Poké be considered? IF you consider usage on big tournaments, that's very tricky to consider because not only the players want to win and tend use something much more certain, but every top player in the world have some preferences of playing and uses more certain Pokés. Someone that pulled a Moltres on a tournament match could never do the same with, let's say, Articuno or Pinsir because of their innate differences and his/her own playstyle.

 

"Also be honest with yourself, are you winning with Arcanine against good players or randoms on ladder?"

Sorry, that is an unsettlingly arrogant question.

The ladder right now has about 30 people above 1500, maybe 15 of whom have been active the last month and the rest have taken breaks and slowly facing elo decay. But those players in my experience are typically well more refined and disciplined than my average tournament opponents. To restrict "good" players to obscure sectors of infrequent tournament players is pretentious and cavalier.

You effectively pigeonholed "good" into a dubious, unreachable platitude. Congrats, you reached an elite and unattainable group of the "good" ones, and the rest of us test teams on the ladder, where we're able to actually test teams regularly. And yeah, I reached top 20 the first time with Charizard as a lead because Jynx players, the ones who also did well in tourneys, didn't know how to handle him.

I was speaking with a guy who regularly wins tournaments and wrote a lot for Smogon. He was demonstrating teams with Kabutops and Kingler, and we talked specifically about fire leads versus Jynx. He was sharing specifically that there aren't categorically "bad" pokemon in uu and up. You can't call a 'mon crap when players like MaskedMasterBR are finding uses to beat what you'd call "good" pokemon by "good" players.

 

Putting aside my beef over monopolizing "good" into a dubious platitude,
Melanie carries a lot of solid objections to Arcanine's use in the lead vs. Jynx. The main point is that Jynx, on average (granting sometimes scary scenarios, but going for the average trade off) gets Lovely Kiss off, even if she's hurt, and puts the match 6v5 turn 1.

Here's my issue with both pokemon in the tradeoff, and neither of you are really wrong.
--Jynx can always get LK off of any pokemon turn 1, unless the opponent also has a Jynx or a Gengar, or cheeses a KO or other hax with some other faster 'mon.
~Is the optimal play to just lead your own Jynx and hope for the ~37.5% that your LK lands and not theirs? Or is the only solved, optimal solution against Jynx forever bound to lead Gengar to barely usually win the sleep race? You can only play rock/paper/scissors so optimally (especially if removed from the Western, psychological disposition to lead rock in the literal game). Is Jynx setting the match 6v5 turn 1 the golden standard of play? No, Jynx isn't herself "great"--there's only tradeoffs. There's not any singular solved, gold-standard move turn 1; every lead has a tradeoff in some triangle of play. There's plenty of viable responses typically when faced with a Jynx lead even without your lead being a sleeper. Traditional big 4 teams have been considered to still have a slight advantage against Jynx leads for being able to paralyze the frail Jynx and force its rest and/or switchouts, and can even it out to 5v5 a few turns later with their own sleeper, plus opposing glass-cannon-Jynx is paralyzed or resting. OU - A guide on RBY openings | Smogon Forums

--Winning the sleep race is by no means a greased sled ride to victory. Any bozo could click LK turn 1 and drop sleep on a top player. Obviously, top players use plenty tricks to deal with being 1 down when that happens and regaining momentum. *There's more to the story than "Jynx wins the tradeoff against Arcanine."* True, but game theory could show how the Arcanine team may have the lasting advantage anyway. Since Jynx always has the potential to get away with LK turn 1, a valid strat is to punish her with status or heavy damage before she does.
~Arcanine's biggest issue with doing that is the modest, roughly 70% chance to attack Jynx at least once in the first 2 turns between the possibilities of a) Arc' winning the speed tie, and then LK lands, b) LK goes first and misses, c) LK goes first and lands with Arc' staying asleep, or d) LK lands first and first turn wake up, then Arcanine goes first turn 2. Within those possibilities that Arc' attacked before asleep are the meager odds he may have paralyzed Jynx and she gets full stun, or he OHKO'd her with FB. Lots of possibilities before switch-outs. It's roughly 70% he pulls off an attack without staying asleep. (whether he hits with fireblast should be run independently from whether he gets to attack in the first place).
~~That's not a great tradeoff to then being put to sleep. In that regard, Melanie is right about this matchup. But that's not the full story. Like I said, *any mirror Jynx lead or Gengar has to also fear getting put to sleep by the Jynx anyway. Any lead faces serious risk of getting slept by an opposing Jynx.* The point is not that you can slick your sled to victory turn 1 even if you hacked spore onto Electrode. The point is to put pressure on their sleep lead that they have to cover later.

--Since it comes out to abooout 70% for 'Arc to attack Jynx before he goes to sleep, imagine then if you could guarantee to win the speed tie and using a move that's at least 70% accurate. --> Fire spin isn't great. But, it's at least as favorable as Arcanine's odds to hit Jynx before he goes to sleep. Let's not dismiss the faster fires so quickly. Ninetales is frail and faces plenty obstacles. But answering a Jynx lead is not one of them. Obviously, throwing out a FB turn 1 and burning your opponent's 'Zam, Starmie, or even Chansey virtually seals your doom. But if your opponent knows you wouldn't play paper, you usually gain the advantage by playing paper. Ninetales could body slam, confuse ray, fireblast, or fire spin turn 1 on Jynx. How good is Jynx's lovely kiss when she's parafusion'ed? Not great. Ninetales is not dead in the water after damaging Jynx. If Jynx had switched out without Ninetales asleep, 'Nine comes out later, like any Jolteon, to spit out fire late-mid game on bulls and bears after the special walls are paralyzed, or to scare Jynx's if they fancy to return to the field.

 

Ninetales for sure does 100% better vs Jynx than Arcanine.

Nine has capability of parafusion (Body Slam + Confuse Ray), something that can extend to the starting positions with Confusion annoying opposing player and the FB mid-late game as Cooljam Junior said;

Fire Spin (even if these moves have 5 acc when I use them x_x');

Stronger Fire Blast;

>Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Jynx: 231-272 (69.3 - 81.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

>Ninetales Fire Blast vs. Jynx: 267-314 (80.1 - 94.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

And bigger chance to Crit.

(Arcanine: 18.55%
Ninetales: 19.53%)

Arcanine's 110 Atack is even with Ninetales' 76 because it has the same chance to paralyze, and none of them wants to kill anything with it. And adding the fact that both are Fire-types, Starmie brings trouble to both. But they at least can Body Slam once, if Starmie doesn't Crit (something that unfortunately happens big time with the alien starfish).

Thinking a little, I see no value on sticking to Arc over Ninetales. I'll show:

Vs Alakazam (good)
-Psychic 4HKOs both;
Seismic Toss 4HKOs both.
No difference between Nine and Nine.

Arcanine can kill it faster with Body Slam, but Ninetales can parafusion it. It's much more optimal.


Vs Starmie (bad with good points)
-Surf 2HKOs both;

Psychic 4HKOs Ninetales, and has a 7.8 chance of 3HKOing Arcanine... But then there can be a Crit and/or Special drop.

No big difference. She is a pain to both.


Vs Exeggutor (good)
-If I used Egg as a Lead and faced Ninetales or Arcanine, I'd definetely switch out, specially if my team has a GolDon or some weakness to opposing GolDon; if Egg stays, it would receive:

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Exeggutor: 194-228 (49.3 - 58%) -- 98.3% chance to 2HKO

Exeggutor Psychic vs. Arcanine: 132-156 (34.4 - 40.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Ninetales Fire Blast vs. Exeggutor: 221-260 (56.2 - 66.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Exeggutor Psychic vs. Ninetales: 114-135 (32.6 - 38.6%) -- 99.5% chance to 3HKO

Just put Egg's Psychic damage to see what it really does (nothing), and exploding turn 1 is laughable.


Jynx (good)
-Nine vs Jynx is a 50% 50%, but Nine vs Jynx is 100% certain of Nine going first. What a time to be alive!


Gengar (bad)
-Gengar as always is the fastest sleep inducer, but only manages to do that ~60% of the time. What is the difference between what Ninetales can do to it to what Arcanine can do if it misses Turn 1?

Ninetales Fire Blast vs. Gengar: 108-127 (33.4 - 39.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Gengar: 94-111 (29.1 - 34.3%) -- 3.2% chance to 3HKO

Obviously kyuubi is better. But not only that...

Ninetales Fire Spin vs. Gengar: 15-18 (4.6 - 5.5%) -- possibly the worst move ever

Ninetales can force Gengar to switch, or let him try again to hit Hypnosis, with a cost of little HP. *Thoughts on that is appreciated.*

And if Gengar puts something else to sleep, what if Nine and Nine are put in front of him?

Gengar Thunderbolt vs. Ninetales: 82-97 (23.4 - 27.7%) -- 83.5% chance to 4HKO

Gengar Night Shade vs Ninetales + Gengar: 4HKO

Gengar Thunderbolt vs. Arcanine: 95-112 (24.8 - 29.2%) -- 100% chance to 4HKO

Both can receive Gengar's damage well mid-game and scare it out with Fire Blast if the player haven't frozen anything...

So, this is important. Whenever I see someone talking about the Fire-types in RBY OU it's always the same at the end... "But they can thaw things, ew". Up until now, the only lead that can make the player cautious using Fire Blast is Nines vs Gengar because it can return later after the turn 1. All the previous scenarios are from facing the lead on turn 1 only.


Vs Jolteon (average? Idk)
-Jolteon paralyzes both Nines and what is the difference of what each one can do?

Arcanine Body Slam vs. Jolteon: 90-106 (27 - 31.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
(To try to paralyze it too)

Arcanine Fire Blast vs. Jolteon: 105-124 (31.5 - 37.2%) -- 85% chance to 3HKO
(To damage it, but can Burn... What is very, very bad)

If Arcanine manages to get back, it can scare Jolteon with Hyper Beam:

Arcanine Hyper Beam vs. Jolteon: 158-186 (47.4 - 55.8%) -- 80.9% chance to 2HKO

And Ninetales?

Ninetales Body Slam vs. Jolteon: 70-83 (21 - 24.9%) -- guaranteed 5HKO
(Obviously much more weaker than Arc's)

Ninetales Fire Blast vs. Jolteon: 122-144 (36.6 - 43.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
(Obviously much more stronger than Arc's)

What Jolteon can do to them besides paralyzing?

Jolteon Thunderbolt vs. Ninetales: 110-130 (31.5 - 37.2%) -- 85.7% chance to 3HKO

Jolteon Thunderbolt vs. Arcanine: 127-150 (33.1 - 39.1%) -- 100% chance to 3HKO

Ninetales can receive more damage on average than Arcanine. It's 100 Special gives more bulk to it than Arcanine's 80, despite Arc having 17 more points of BST on HP.


Vs Chansey (bad)
-Both hit the pink egg caretaker first. Who scare it the most? None, because if they Burn Chansey they'are in big disadvantage and can't paralyze it with Body Slam. And, again, Arcanine hits the chubby nurse more thanks to its Attack stat.

But both can do one very important thing that goes unseen: see a little of Chansey's moveset. After putting it to sleep, how is she going to attack? She cannot keep using Soft-Boiled because its PPs are gold. If she uses T-Wave we know it. If she attacks with Ice Beam (the most common) or Seismic Toss, we will know it and nothing will kill the Nines instantly. She cannot simply stall with any other move because of its PPs... and the fact that we are on a timer, she needs to do something before we wake up and we return to turn 1 basically. So, Chansey will waste its time with Arcanine or Ninetales, and I think that this is valuable.

---

So, overall Ninetales is superior to Arcanine against all common Leads, with both having bad matchup against Starmie, Gengar and Chansey and average (?) matchup against Jolteon.

Starmie simply KO both with Surf. But that means it only has one other to attack: is it Psychic, Thunderbolt, Ice Beam, Blizzard, Hyper Beam...? That depends on its team. If she has Rhydon as a teammate, Thunderbolt is better because of opposing Starmie and Slowbro, but that leaves it completely open to Exeggutor (and vice versa with Blizzard). Starmie's teams will definetely become more open if it chooses to run Surf (as I always thought they were), but helps against both Nines.

Gengar puts both to sleep ~60% of the time, but if it cannot, both Fire-types can return later to receive the shadow's attacks very comfortably if the playet chooses to sleep sack another Poké.

And Chansey is very comfortable with both at Turn 1, but of course Arcanine scare it the most because of Hyper Beam mid/end-game. Ninetales can threat it very indirectly paralyzing Chansey early/mid-game and using Confuse Ray and Fire Spin, to let it in range of Body Slam. Much, much more complicated than Arcanine, but I think it is better on the odds.

 

Yeah, the Fire-type Jynx counter idea isn't utterly absurd but Arcanine's the wrong 'mon for it. Ninetales is the obvious one; Rapidash isn't completely ridiculous since it has AgiSpin to give headaches later on (it's nowhere near as good at AgiTrap as Moltres or Dragonite, but those aren't anti-Jynx leads).

Paralysis/burn statdrops come back when you switch out/back in AFAIK.