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RBY OU / 1U (OverUsed) Endgame Analysis

Discussion in 'Analysis and Research' started by Disaster Area, Dec 26, 2015.

  1. Disaster Area

    Disaster Area Little Ball of Fur and Power Member

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    In this thread we can analyse endgames that as players we found particularly interesting.

    I'll start with this match between me and Fortune for fun.

    We begin at the start of Turn 37, with Fortune's Tauros and Disaster Area's Exeggutor active.

    Fortune
    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
    vs
    Disaster Area
    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]

    In depth - moves in italics are unrevealed but likely. Moves with * are unrevealed by Turn 37, but are revealed later on in the replay. I instead provide full information here on what my actual sets are.

    Fortune's Pokémon:

    [​IMG] 43% - Body Slam / Blizzard / Hyper Beam* / Earthquake
    [​IMG]100% - Asleep (from Rest - 2 turns spent) - Body Slam / Ice Beam / Rest / ??? (possibly Reflect or Amnesia)
    [​IMG]86% - Softboiled / Thunder Wave / Ice Beam* / ??? (possibly Thunderbolt, Counter, or Reflect)

    Disaster Area's Pokémon:

    [​IMG]61% - Psychic (Remainder of set: Sleep Powder / Stun Spore / Explosion)
    [​IMG]82% - Ice Beam (Remainder of set: Thunder Wave / Thunderbolt / Softboiled)
    [​IMG]43% - Paralyzed - Body Slam / Hyper Beam (Remainder of set: Blizzard / Earthquake)
    [​IMG] 80% - Asleep (from Sleep Powder - 3 turns spent) - Thunder Wave / Recover (Remainder of set: Psychic / Blizzard)

    Now the incredibly difficult question here is, what's the odds of victory, and optimal play, roughly, for each player? It's one mess of an endgame, but it's highly curious and interesting!
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2015
    Aurious, Kristoph and Fortune like this.
  2. Disaster Area

    Disaster Area Little Ball of Fur and Power Member

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    Not to say that I played perfectly up to this point (marco suggests going Starmie on the final turn of the tauros ditto, I mention going egg as a possibility too, we talk about the risk of HB crits, tauros using bslam instead, etc.), and in retrospect I'd choose Chansey over Egg after the Lax boom on Jynx, and marco and I agree that that would be better. If you wish we could alternatively look at that scenario.

    Alright so looking at the first turn,
    [​IMG] vs [​IMG]

    Options here for the Exeggutor player: Psychic / Explosion / Sleep Powder / Switch to Starmie / Switch to Chansey, options for the Tauros player: Blizzard / Body Slam / Switch to Snorlax / Switch to Chansey

    I'd be more interested in figuring out chansey vs tauros here though imo. Personally I think Ice Beam would have been chansey's ideal play, and then sacrifice either the para'd tauros or the starmie, in order to get egg in. Ice Beam either puts tauros in egg psychic range, or has a chance to freeze chansey. If chansey does switch in on fortune's end, then I can go Tauros, letting me sacrifice it to his chansey, however if he were to double to tauros (possible) then I end up in the same situation, deciding to bring in either egg or chansey vs tauros, with chansey on the opposing end having taken insignificant damage, and really making the turn much more difficult for me. Would doubling to tauros on my switch be obvious for fortune - would there be any alternative play for me other than staying in with chansey? I think I might have had to have stayed in with chansey and thrown off and recieved some ice beams, trying not to get frozen, before bringing in my para'd tauros vs the chansey and throwing off attacks until tauros goes down (or if lucky, chansey) and then going into egg and threatening sleep.

    [20:51:25] Lutra: pointless even switching out eggy on turn 36 imo, the story of the battle I guess, not good switches. I don't think it's worth analysing.
    [20:51:45] George S. [Disaster Area]: I thought it was good fun
    [20:51:54] George S. [Disaster Area]: and what would you have gone to there
    [20:51:57] George S. [Disaster Area]: rather than egg?
    [20:52:13] Lutra: I mean just psychic with egg
    [20:52:19] George S. [Disaster Area]: well
    [20:52:20] Lutra: then switch to star if it gets frozen if you want
    [20:52:24] George S. [Disaster Area]: it was a roll there
    [20:52:29] George S. [Disaster Area]: and crit KOs at that point too
    [20:52:33] Lutra: gets it down to 1 attack
    [20:52:34] George S. [Disaster Area]: and sleep powder had better odds of
    [20:52:37] George S. [Disaster Area]: inundating tauros
    [20:52:39] George S. [Disaster Area]: at that point
    [20:52:40] George S. [Disaster Area]: than psychic
    [20:53:20] Lutra: but you can kill with 1 attack with chansey
    [20:53:26] Lutra: instead of 2
    [20:53:37] George S. [Disaster Area]: I know but I need egg alive to be able
    [20:53:40] George S. [Disaster Area]: to heat chansey really
    [20:53:42] George S. [Disaster Area]: or at least
    [20:53:47] George S. [Disaster Area]: it otherwise becomes rly difficult
    [20:54:42] Lutra: but it was difficult, you almost lost
    [20:55:11] George S. [Disaster Area]: not saying there was an easy option xD
    [20:55:25] George S. [Disaster Area]: but yeah, we can argue in the thread too
    [20:55:41] asd devasd: yeah, i would've just boomed egg
    [20:55:57] asd devasd: who cares
    [20:56:21] asd devasd: well, was snorlax waking up next turn?
    [20:56:33] George S. [Disaster Area]: yeah that lax was
    [20:56:41] George S. [Disaster Area]: it was from rest and it had burnt 2 turns
    [20:57:05] asd devasd: lol
    [20:57:17] asd devasd: something suggests me that egg shouldn't have been sent it
    [20:57:47] George S. [Disaster Area]: egg's the only one that doesn't force me to sack something if he went straight up with chansey
    [20:57:56] George S. [Disaster Area]: or well have
    [20:57:59] George S. [Disaster Area]: chansey 50/50
    [20:58:09] George S. [Disaster Area]: and if I go my own chansey whilst it could
    [20:58:13] George S. [Disaster Area]: hold its own vs tauros
    [20:58:18] George S. [Disaster Area]: hmm maybe I shoulda gone with chansey but
    [20:58:25] George S. [Disaster Area]: the risk of status spread and stuff there
    [20:58:26] George S. [Disaster Area]: it was complex
    [20:58:32] George S. [Disaster Area]: looking back actually if I did it again
    [20:58:36] George S. [Disaster Area]: i might have considered
    [20:58:40] George S. [Disaster Area]: going chansey instead of egg
    [20:58:43] George S. [Disaster Area]: if I thought he'd go tauros
    [20:59:08] asd devasd: turn 36 you boom and go chansey
    [20:59:42] asd devasd: well, having tauros paralyzed is bad
    [20:59:56] asd devasd: i think you forgot to mention that on the forum
    [21:00:00] George S. [Disaster Area]: yeah he risked a hb crit
    [21:00:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: on his chansey
    [21:00:10] George S. [Disaster Area]: i mentioned that i was par'd with my tauros
    [21:00:20] George S. [Disaster Area]: i didn't make any comment on anything whatsoever being good or bad in the first post
    [21:01:18] asd devasd: Disaster Area's Pokémon:

    61% - Psychic (Remainder of set: Sleep Powder / Stun Spore / Explosion)
    [IMG]82% - Ice Beam (Remainder of set: Thunder Wave / Thunderbolt / Softboiled)
    [IMG]43% - Body Slam / Hyper Beam (Remainder of set: Blizzard / Earthquake)
    [21:01:44] George S. [Disaster Area]: oh
    [21:01:47] asd devasd: btw you said you didn't want to risk a freeze war, but... ch hyper beam is 20%
    [21:02:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: yeah i mean
    [21:02:03] George S. [Disaster Area]: on that turn
    [21:02:06] asd devasd: you were kinda forced to take that
    [21:02:07] George S. [Disaster Area]: i could have gone egg rather than
    [21:02:11] George S. [Disaster Area]: tauros hbing
    [21:02:12] George S. [Disaster Area]: since my egg
    [21:02:18] George S. [Disaster Area]: was out of tauros hb range
    [21:02:25] George S. [Disaster Area]: and i win the egg vs chans MU
    [21:02:37] George S. [Disaster Area]: I just thought he needed chansey p badly for my team so he wouldn't risk the HB crit
    [21:02:41] George S. [Disaster Area]: just like I needed egg
    [21:02:58] asd devasd: i would've sent starmie into his tauros
    [21:03:32] George S. [Disaster Area]: that's an interesting choice; doesn't get tauros para'd but it still puts you in a bad spot vs the chansey
    [21:04:00] asd devasd: well if he slams and you go egg you're screwed
    [21:04:06] asd devasd: if he crits, you're screwed
    [21:04:24] asd devasd: and tauros can survive psychic
    [21:04:47] George S. [Disaster Area]: if he hb's you can sleep tho
    [21:04:54] George S. [Disaster Area]: idr if the glitch means it's 100% acc but I think so
    [21:05:43] asd devasd: if he's paralyzed
    [21:05:52] George S. [Disaster Area]: he wasn't para'd
    [21:06:06] asd devasd: and... sleep was useful vs chansey/lax
    [21:06:49] asd devasd: you actually sacrificed starmie later, in order to go to.... chansey
    [21:07:03] George S. [Disaster Area]: I know..
    [21:07:05] George S. [Disaster Area]: :[
    [21:07:15] *** George S. [Disaster Area] misplays a bit ***
    [21:07:33] asd devasd: yeah, basically you could've put it on turn 36 as i said
    [21:07:52] George S. [Disaster Area]: i agree
    [21:08:01] asd devasd: you did great with lax booming
    [21:08:15] asd devasd: and then you piexploded
    [21:08:23] George S. [Disaster Area]: rof
    [21:09:30] asd devasd: also
    [21:09:43] asd devasd: i don't understand why you ice beamed sleeping lax
    [21:09:56] George S. [Disaster Area]: what when my chansey
    [21:09:58] George S. [Disaster Area]: was last
    [21:10:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: i was running
    [21:10:01] asd devasd: reflect? counter? as 4th
    [21:10:03] George S. [Disaster Area]: tbolt chansey
    [21:10:10 | Edited 21:10:16] George S. [Disaster Area]: the team likes the lapras support
    [21:10:25] asd devasd: yeah, so you want to save ice beams in case lax wakes up
    [21:10:47] George S. [Disaster Area]: mm i agree
    [21:11:08] asd devasd: you're not countering tauros in any case, as he's at 43%
    [21:11:25] asd devasd: and he's not going to think a lot about slam or eq
    [21:11:34] asd devasd: possibly going for yolo HB in case lax fails

    ---

    [20:53:21] Nails: well
    [20:53:31] Nails: 100% - Asleep (from Rest - 2 turns spent)
    [20:53:39] Nails: this means it wakes up next right
    [20:53:50] George S. [Disaster Area]: yeah
    [20:54:11] George S. [Disaster Area]: this should generate a lot of discussion imo :)
    [20:54:32] Nails: egg is hella strong
    [20:54:34] George S. [Disaster Area]: yep
    [20:54:39] Nails: in this scenario
    [20:54:42] George S. [Disaster Area]: but tauros crits/freezes could end it and
    [20:54:46] George S. [Disaster Area]: it needs to use sleep or explode
    [20:54:49] George S. [Disaster Area]: to be able to beat chansey
    [20:55:30] Nails: hmm
    [20:56:25] Nails: boom seems like a low quality play
    [20:58:12] Nails: yeah egg has to rely on hitting a sleep this turn
    [20:58:23] Nails: and not getting fucked up
    [20:58:32] Nails: because everything else just dies to body slam
    [20:59:01] Nails: but it's just a bunch of slightly weighted 50/50s
    [20:59:08] George S. [Disaster Area]: and the best RByers have to make
    [20:59:11] George S. [Disaster Area]: sense of this
    [20:59:15] George S. [Disaster Area]: this is why RBY can be so tough
    [20:59:19] Nails: yes I know
    [20:59:26] George S. [Disaster Area]: :)
    [20:59:27] Nails: it's just like any other gen
    [21:00:16] Nails: it's not special outside of the lack of powerful niche options that can win certain matchups really hard
    [21:01:33] Nails: I mean it doesn't seem extremely complex
    [21:01:38] Nails: tho
    [21:01:52] Nails: I could definitely be wrong
    [21:02:08] Nails: but my gut tells me the play is fortune body slams with bull
    [21:02:18] Nails: you sleep
    [21:03:28] Nails: why wouldn't fortune's chansey have toss
    [21:03:43] George S. [Disaster Area]: well
    [21:03:47] George S. [Disaster Area]: ice beam's revealed later
    [21:03:55] George S. [Disaster Area]: but without that info sure it could have had toss
    [21:03:59] George S. [Disaster Area]: it's not really a big deal
    [21:04:01] Nails: I mean toss isn't useful in this endgame
    [21:04:01] George S. [Disaster Area]: well
    [21:04:07] George S. [Disaster Area]: hmm actually it kinda is but I figured
    [21:04:13] George S. [Disaster Area]: it's more likely he has ib
    [21:04:15] George S. [Disaster Area]: than stoss
    [21:04:16] Nails: sing would be very very useful in this endgame
    [21:04:24] George S. [Disaster Area]: yeah he has 2 sleepers alrdy tho, sing's quite unlikely
    [21:04:46] Nails: ic
    [21:05:36] Nails: idk man it's just a really complex markov chain
    [21:05:49] Nails: but
    [21:06:09] Nails: I think theres gonna be some
    [21:06:11] Nails: ice beam war
    [21:06:12] Nails: going on
    [21:06:33] George S. [Disaster Area]: yeah I was trying to avoid that
    [21:06:52] Nails: like
    [21:06:56] Nails: you don't have enough tools
    [21:07:04] Nails: to break lax + chansey
    [21:07:11] Nails: without relying on ice beam war
    [21:07:27] George S. [Disaster Area]: unless I play egg well
    [21:08:22] Nails: oh
    [21:08:25] Nails: your OP didn't mention
    [21:08:29] George S. [Disaster Area]: oh yeah I need
    [21:08:31] Nails: that your tauros was paraed
    [21:08:32] George S. [Disaster Area]: to edit that in
    [21:08:49] Nails: yeah with parade tauros you're just fucked
    [21:08:52] Nails: and you have to sleep tauros
    [21:08:56] Nails: turn 37
    [21:10:03] Nails: your choice to boom turn 46 was bad imo
    [21:11:05] Nails: yea I disagree with both of your endgames
    [21:11:32] Nails: fortune needed to kill egg and then lax shits on everything
    [21:11:52] Nails: but paraing the egg works too
    [21:12:27] Nails: he didn't need bull unslept
    [21:12:33] Nails: and should've body slammed
    [21:12:37] Nails: turn 37
    [21:13:29] Nails: like, that lax just shits on your hopes and dreams
    [21:13:47] Nails: unless it tanks a sleep or a boom
    [21:13:53] Nails: and he let it get slept
    [21:14:00] Nails: and then didn't let it tank a boom
    [21:14:02] Nails: like, lol
    [21:15:19] Nails: his position was way stronger but he threw
    [21:15:23] Nails: is my conclusion
    [21:15:31] Nails: your egg was the only thing that could do anything
    [21:15:44] Nails: besides fish for freeze
    [21:16:05] Nails: and tauros had 1 hyper beam left
    [21:18:04] Nails: ur play on turn 37 was ok
    [21:18:05] Nails: though
    [21:18:20] Nails: his risked a miss but wasn't terrible
    [21:20:04] Nails: maybe i'm just less impressed by perfect pokemon play than others
    [21:20:21] Nails: but I don't think it's that amazing
    [/Spoiler]
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2015
  3. eden's embrace

    eden's embrace YOU ARE MY DESTINY Host Emeritus

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    I thought I could take a crack at analyzing the end game here for what its worth/in case anyone is still interest feel free to point out if there are any incorrect assumptions here.

    Fortune's Pokémon:

    [​IMG]43% - Body Slam / Blizzard / Hyper Beam* / Earthquake
    [​IMG]100% - Asleep (from Rest - 2 turns spent) - Body Slam / Ice Beam / Rest / ??? (possibly Reflect or Amnesia)
    [​IMG]86% - Softboiled / Thunder Wave / Ice Beam* / ??? (possibly Thunderbolt, Counter, or Reflect)

    Disaster Area's Pokémon:

    [​IMG]61% - Psychic (Remainder of set: Sleep Powder / Stun Spore / Explosion)
    [​IMG]82% - Ice Beam (Remainder of set: Thunder Wave / Thunderbolt / Softboiled)
    [​IMG]43% - Paralyzed - Body Slam / Hyper Beam (Remainder of set: Blizzard / Earthquake)
    [​IMG]80% - Asleep (from Sleep Powder - 3 turns spent) - Thunder Wave / Recover (Remainder of set: Psychic / Blizzard)

    Alright so looking at the first turn,
    [​IMG] vs [​IMG]

    Options here for the Exeggutor player: Psychic / Explosion / Sleep Powder / Switch to Starmie / Switch to Chansey, options for the Tauros player: Blizzard / Body Slam / Switch to Snorlax / Switch to Chansey

    Let's take into account the game situation. For Fortune Snorlax either Reflect or Amnesia Lax are both important, and the fact that we have so many Ice Beams is also really beneficial because once the opposing Chansey gets frozen,Fortune just wins solely on the basis of the condition of the rest of the opponent' team.

    OK so here basically the Exeggutor is key I'd say; Piexplode can't bring anything else in, but at the same time Exeggutor is important; But on the other hand Chansey can't come in, because it'll just die on the switch pretty much; Tauros is paralyzed and useless for the most part; Starmie should be waking up but needs a free turn to do so; So he is forced to stay in pretty much, there is no play that involves switching this turn for Piexplode. There is a high risk of a Tauros crit here, but he is forced to take either the Body Slam OR Hyper Beam that'll be used here(probably Body Slam to ensure that Eggy is dead if Tauros lives and to threaten a crit on Chansey) and Psychic(he could use Explosion but that is a bad play here) and Exeggutor Psychic vs. Tauros: 143-169 (40.5 - 47.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO; so he has a solid chance to KO here. If not he trades Eggy for most of Tauros' remaining life and kill with Ice Beam(assuming Hyper Beam doesn't crit). Chansey lives assuming Fortune doesn't get 2 max rolls with Tauros+Chansey as well as win Chansey speed tie so the chances for Chansey living are high.

    Now the thing that tells me Piexplode is in a very poor position here is that even with Chansey alive honestly because, the moment Chansey gets frozen, he just loses; because Fortune has two mons which can win the end game with a frozen Chansey in Snorlax+his own Chansey and so I'd say he should just go for the Chansey freeze, which he should eventually get in all honesty and then either of Fortune's Chansey/Snorlax should win the end game with a paralyzed Tauros/frozen Chansey/sleeping Starmie. I would go for freeze war with Snorlax against the Chansey, and if that doesn't work do it again with Fortune Chansey vs Piexplode's; I think it works out the same even if Chansey goes for the freeze war first honestly but I'm probably missing something and Chansey probably has an easier time versus Starmie as well; honestly the game to begin with is heavily in Fortune's favor I'd say. If Eggy is alive though Piex' options open up and now can threaten a boom on either of Chansey/Snorlax, out of which the correct play is to probably let Snorlax take the boom[it dies though because the turn ends when it takes the boom and that doesn't eat into the sleep counter,so Chansey can ko it], and then go for a freeze war with in a Chansey ditto to decide the game.

    I might be wrong somewhere, feel free to point it out, I probably have neglected/omitted a lot of situations so feel free to criticize!
     
  4. RBYer

    RBYer Member

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    In my opinion, the key here is recognizing the immediate state of the battle. You have the advantage but not a big one. There is no way to really secure victory so you need to take risks that may or may not work, but don't go complete disaster most of the time.

    You basically need Exeggutor alive to deal with Snorlax, however Tauros is immediately threatening if not in the most devastating way.

    His Chansey is a pain because with it comes the inability to die. There is very little you can do to his Chansey to make it die except kill all the Pokemon around it or sacrifice Exeggutor somehow, which would be horrifically stupid due to its check on Snorlax. The key is figuring out how to deal with this living Chansey.

    This Chansey wants to get paralyzed which essentially takes Thunder Wave out of the playbook on your own Chansey. So sacrificing Tauros or Starmie to get in Chansey is not much of a viable strategy. Your Starmie, with its Psychic, as a result, is much better at dealing with his Snorlax than your Tauros. And as long as Tauros is taken care of, Chansey can force Snorlax into sleeping, giving Starmie time to wake up.

    So if you sacrifice a Pokemon, it should be Tauros who is effectively useless in its paralyzed state.

    Game theory wise, you want him to think that you could switch to anything the first turn, but most of the time you should be using Psychic. If it doesn't get the kill and stays alive, you can then sacrifice Tauros and bring in Chansey.

    Chansey can just go for a straight Softboiled if it comes to that, even if he is likely to use Body Slam or more likely switch out.

    If Exeggutor gets the big hit with Psychic on Tauros and wins there, you have almost assured victory, but even in this sort of worse case scenario you still have a shot of winning by freezing your way to victory.
     
  5. peach_nair

    peach_nair Member

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    Exeggutor could use Sleep Powder to put the Tauros to sleep. Exeggutor can then Psychic, switch to Starmie to try to wake up, or switch to Chansey. Then Chansey could try to freeze the opposing Chansey or Lax. Paralyzing the Chansey with your Chansey and then going for Slam + Hbeam with Tauros is also an option, though Snorlax would ruin that if Fortune sent that in.
     
  6. Roostur

    Roostur Member

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    It is hard to tell what optimal is when sub optimal can win sometimes and optimal can lose sometimes in this game. We've all had those moments where we used a move with 90% accuracy and missed, and then got hit by our opponents 75% accurate move. I think pressing explode is the best choice, which is funny because in hindsight that actually wouldn't have worked at that specific time thanks to the blizzard crit. Regardless, if put in that situation again, I think pressing explode is going to win you the game more times than not. The SUPER optimal play would obviously be to analyze things that happened before this end game so this wouldn't happen again.
     
  7. Disaster Area

    Disaster Area Little Ball of Fur and Power Member

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    optimal = highest % chance to win. Doesn't guarantee you winning but it gives you the best chance. Because of the nature of the game you may have nash equilibriums to contend with, and when it comes down to it, probably the interesting to do is to calculate the nash equilibriums for specific situations, if you can find a specific situation that a) comes up frequently enough and b) it's simple enough to compute.
     

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